A man with a plan ... and no plan B
Erik ten Hag had a bright idea, but he was still outwitted by Pep Guardiola
SIX ASIDES Premier League: City 3, United 1
Erik ten Hag had a plan, but he didn’t have a plan B. The plan was half Mourinho, half Solskjaer: park the bus and play on the counter. United’s usual 4-1-2-3 turned into a 4-4-1-1, and the two at the front were not the two you would have expected. The only forwards in the starting XI, Alejandro Garnacho and Marcus Rashford, were converted into journeymen wingers, with Bruno Fernandes at centre-forward and Scott McTominay just behind him. At times it was a 4-2-2-2, with a whiff of Ralf Rangnick. It was a bright idea – which, crucially, restored Rashford to the left – and it worked a treat for 15 minutes, as Fernandes chased a long ball from André Onana and laid it off to Rashford, who sent a screamer in off the underside of the bar.
Say what you like about him, Rashford’s record in big games is immense. This was his sixth goal against City, to go with six each against Arsenal, Liverpool, Spurs and Chelsea. It was a far more resounding riposte than his ghostwritten piece for the Players’ Tribune. It not only silenced the widespread criticism (which had been overdone): it also countered the argument from Michael Cox, who analysed Rashford’s shooting for The Athletic and concluded that all his good shots this season were side-footed into the corner. This one was quite different – a blast from the past. To see it, click here.
The calendar was smiling on United again. They had won every derby that fell in the first third of March since 1969, most of them by 2-0, including the games in 2020 and 2021. But today there was a problem that was blindingly obvious by half-time. United were under siege, overrun by a far stronger team. They hadn’t had an attempt on goal for half an hour. They would have been one down, not one up, if Rashford’s shot had conformed to its xG (0.03) and Erling Haaland hadn’t missed a sitter at the other end. They were relying not just on moments, as so often, but on the faintest of chances. Their only realistic hope was to come out and play. City always score at home, so the one form of defence that might work was attack. Instead Ten Hag stuck to his lack of guns. The United player who took the most touches in the match (60) was Onana, who kept playing for time when he could have been launching another missile upfield.
The siege continued. The shots piled up: Phil Foden had nine in all, three times as many as the whole United team, spirited though they were. And four of his were on target, compared to one of theirs. His equaliser was an Antony special – of the kind that Antony has forgotten how to deliver. When Ten Hag moved Diogo Dalot to the left to disarm Foden, Pep Guardiola countered by sending Foden the other way and moving Bernardo Silva to the right. It was Foden who settled the match, not Haaland, because while both are a constant threat, Foden is harder to police. He’s a thief on a moped, whereas Haaland is more of an HGV.
Guardiola had already come up with one plan B. He sent on Julian Alvarez, such a natural footballer, in place of Jeremy Doku, a maverick talent who seems to have wandered in from another sport. Alvarez duly got an assist for the winner; Ten Hag made four substitutions that achieved nothing. He couldn’t be blamed for the first two, as Rashford was barely able to run (though that change could have come 15 minutes earlier) and Jonny Evans, after putting in another fine shift, also had an injury. But the other two subs were puzzling. Kobbie Mainoo, who’d been as calm as ever and deft enough to look as if he could be playing for the other side, gave way to Sofyan Amrabat, who is less creative and more erratic. Amrabat soon produced a clanger which handed City the clincher. Ten Hag also replaced Alejandro Garnacho, the last man standing from the regular front three, with Omari Forson, who added energy while reducing the chances of a second heist. The one player on the bench who might have conjured up a counter, Christian Eriksen, went unused.
This weekend’s games were full of sliding-door moments. Spurs were losing to Palace after 76 minutes, Villa were drawing at Luton after 88 minutes, West Ham were drawing at Everton after 90 minutes, and United were drawing at City after 79 minutes. From there Spurs gained three points, Villa and West Ham gained two, and United lost one. Now they are 11 points off the top four with no realistic hope of making up that ground. Losing 3-1 at the Etihad is not the problem: it’s par for the course, especially as they were missing vital components in Lisandro Martinez, Luke Shaw and Rasmus Højlund. The damage was done in the home games with Palace, Bournemouth and Fulham. Now they are left relying on their rivals to give them a helping hand, in fact two. Spurs will have to have another of their Spursy spells, and the English clubs still in Europe (plenty of them, from Villa to Brighton) will have to do well enough to secure the fifth Champions League place for next season. Even if they manage it, it seems unlikely to be enough to save Ten Hag’s job.
Tim de Lisle is a sportswriter for The Guardian and the editor of United Writing. Our other founder, Rob Smyth, wrote the Guardian live blog on today’s game.