Pick Fred – and forget about the Treble
How do you replace Martial? Who goes on the right wing? And how many midfielders do you need? Our writers work out how the underdogs can win the Cup Final
FA Cup final: City v United, Saturday 3pm BST (live on BBC1 and ITV)
TIM First question: what would your front three have been with Martial fit?
ROB I didn’t feel strongly about this, which is another way of saying I couldn’t make my mind up, but I think it would have been the same front three (and front six) that started the league game in February: Rashford left, Martial up front and Bruno Fernandes playing from the right. You?
TIM Quite agree about Fernandes on the right. Against City you've got to smuggle in another midfielder, someone with enough bite to win the ball and shield the centre-backs. In theory it could be either member of McFred, but in practice Fred is the one with the form and the fitness. Which means Bruno on the right unless you drop Christian Eriksen, whose calm and creativity will be needed. Also, he hasn’t played a minute for United at Wembley.
ROB And he’s more naturally left-sided, which puts him up against Kevin De Bruyne. I know De Bruyne made City’s goal in the league game at Old Trafford but that aside he was pretty quiet.
TIM So who do you want to see in place of Martial?
ROB Rashford has to play up front now, which might – might – be a blessing in disguise as it takes him away from Kyle Walker. It would be seriously tempting to start Alejandro Garnacho, who is crucial to United’s chances, but he’s so much better as a substitute and I think United have to gamble on being no more than a goal down after an hour. To start him on the basis that the game could be over before he gets on as a sub is like setting a field for bad bowling. I’d start Jadon Sancho on the left, but with scope to swap with Fernandes if he struggles to make an impact.
TIM Agreed. I'm tempted by Garnacho too, because he has the knack of seizing the moment and he has already won one final for United, with the youth team last spring. But as you say he can come on as a sub, and Sancho has been sharp enough lately to be worth a start. Another thing in favour of Fernandes on the right: he's the man most likely to manage Wan-Bissaka, whose excursions are apt to end up not going anywhere.
ROB So does that mean a midfield of Casemiro, Fred and Eriksen? And if so, is Eriksen a No10 or one of two No8s?
TIM It does mean that: two ball-winners, and two creators, with Casemiro planting a foot in each camp. (Assuming Fred doesn't astound us with another late bid for Through Ball of the Season.) I'd say Eriksen as the 10, with Fred turning up alongside him on the three occasions in the first hour when United make it over the halfway line.
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ROB With that midfield they should at least have the ability and courage to play through City’s press. I say ‘should’ because they were a nervous mess at the Etihad with a not dissimilar team (no Casemiro though), and City smothered even Modric and Kroos in the Champions League semi-final. But if United do get through, they should have some chances with Rashford up front. Although his movement isn’t as smart as Jamie Vardy’s, there are plenty of similarities in the way they play, and Vardy has destroyed City on more than one occasion. There’s no need for destruction on Saturday; I’d settle for Rashford scoring the opening goal, which would change everything.
TIM That's a great point about Vardy, as he sets out on his return journey down the pyramid. United’s defending has ben good at Wembley this season – 210 minutes, no goals conceded. I suspect we both have the same back four: Wan-B to stifle Grealish, Varane to cruise around looking in control, Lindelof to continue his outstanding form, and Shaw to play one lovely long ball to Rashford.
ROB Yes, agreed. Shaw played well against Haaland at centre-back in January but ultimately an in-form Lindelof + Shaw is preferable to Shaw + an out-of-form Malacia.
TIM And David de Gea just about edges out Jack Butland. One thing I'm wondering is whether United can exploit the absence of Ederson.
ROB Normally I'd say test Ortega from distance early on, but Dutch coaches seem to despise long-range shooting. On that, I have a hunch Pep Guardiola might leave a few of his best XI out: partly out of loyalty, partly because of injury niggles and most definitely to try to humiliate United with a weakened team.
TIM Interesting! He might have a fourth reason, too: because he cares much more about the Champions League.
ROB So we agree on the XI. Any surprises on your bench?
TIM Not in the list, but maybe in the deployment. My main wish for United is that they play as if they've got nothing to lose (and forget about the Treble, which none of them are old enough to remember anyway). I really hope Ten Hag is bold with his subs. If they're 2-0 down at half-time, send on Garnacho, after showing him brief highlights of what Pogba and Sanchez did to City in 2018. And if it's 0-0, send him on anyway.
ROB Though I'd be slightly more cautious, Garnacho does feel more important than a few of the starters. Football still hasn't embraced specialist substitutes, but that's almost what he is at this stage of his career, certainly in a game like this. And I agree on the Treble, which is a red herring.
ROB Anyway, what's your prediction?
TIM That's easy. Wout Weghorst to nick the winner in Fergie time.
ROB Galumping onto a De Bruynian through ball from Aaron Wan-Bissaka.
Our team (4-2-3-1) De Gea; Wan-Bissaka, Varane, Lindelof, Shaw; Casemiro, Fred; Fernandes, Eriksen, Sancho; Rashford.
Subs: Butland; Dalot, Maguire, Malacia; McTominay; Pellistri, Elanga (or Antony),
Weghorst, Garnacho.
Injured: Martinez, Sabitzer, Martial, Antony (probably).